Protesters wearing gas masks during a demonstration in front of the Georgian Parliament.
-Analysis-
PARIS — There's a country on the eastern fringes of the European Union, where the choice between a European destiny and the influence of Vladimir Putin's Russia is on stark display. It wouldn't be surprising to think of Ukraine, but this week we are talking about Georgia, as the former Soviet republic in the Caucasus region is going through a turbulent period reminiscent in many ways of the Ukrainian crisis before the war.
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On Tuesday evening, the Georgian capital Tbilisi saw renewed clashes between the forces of law and order, and thousands of demonstrators opposed to a proposed law they described as a "Russian law." The bill, directly inspired by Russia's law on "foreign influences," aims to reduce the space of civil society and cut it off from external funding.
"We are opposed to anything that separates us from the European Union," said one of the young leaders of the movement against the bill. Georgia was granted EU candidate country status in December, but EU leaders made it clear on Wednesday that the law takes Georgia further away from EU membership.
EU candidacy at risk
To understand what's at stake, we first need to look at the larger map: Georgia is one of those states orphaned at the end of the Soviet bloc. The Baltic states and the countries of Central and Eastern Europe were quick to join the European Union and NATO, while further east, Ukraine, Belarus, Georgia and Moldava remained outside any alliance, under Russian pressure. The Russian army is occupying parts of Ukraine, Georgia and Moldava, while Belarus has fallen into Moscow's orbit.
Since the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, events have been gathering pace. Ukraine and Moldova have taken the first step toward EU membership.
Georgia is still a candidate but is in the hands of a power close to the Kremlin. The man behind the scenes in Tbilisi, oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili, made his fortune in Russia and is imposing a growing authoritarianism inspired by Russian President Vladimir Putin's methods. This is the backdrop to the current crisis.
Revolution of Dignity
For the moment, it's a political crisis between a population largely in favor of European integration and a populist, increasingly authoritarian government. Parliamentary elections will be held in autumn, and the current crackdown is a first step toward ensuring the renewal of Ivanishvili's Georgian Dream party.
This crisis is reminiscent of Ukraine just before the 2014 Revolution of Dignity.
This "Russian law," as the demonstrators call it, has become the key issue in this tug-of-war. Georgian President Salome Zurabishvili, who has limited powers, is opposed to the law and has veto power. But the government has enough support in Parliament to override her.
This crisis is reminiscent of Ukraine just before the 2014 Revolution of Dignity, which saw the overthrow of those who were giving up on bringing Kyiv closer to Europe. We are aware of the tragic outcome. The EU doesn't have many levers to influence the situation in Georgia, other than to be a source of inspiration and hope for the demonstrators in Tbilisi. We must not forget them.
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